In the White Paper “Take Risks, but Take Risks the Right Way: Reframing the Opportunities and Risk Process for Complex Projects” [2012-11], we showed what the main drivers of the risk of Complex Projects are interdependence of contributors and deliverables, and natural variability in the schedule. What are then the actions that can actually best improve significantly project execution risk? Our new fundamental White Paper “Fundamental Insights on Minimizing Complex Project Risk for a Single Project” [2012-25] describes ground-breaking insights about risk management, and how they can be applied practically.
Are you ready for the Domino effect?
The previous paper “The True Risk of Complex Projects” [2012-24] explains the particular drivers of project outcome variability, and their statistical properties. Project outcome variability becomes a risk when it leads to decreased profitability, or delayed delivery.
These fundamental insights show us what are the two levers that can be used to decrease the risk in large, complex projects in a systemic way:
- Decrease complexity;
- Minimize the natural variability of the delivery from the contributors, or, if not possible, its effects.
It is possible to decrease the system complexity and to minimize the effect of natural variability through a series of organizational and planning measures. The paper describes in detail what can be done.
In addition, a major insight of our new understanding of complex projects risk is the primordial role of low probability, high consequences events that often drive of the overall risk. Preventing as much as possible these events needs to be a key focus. And this issue is generally not addressed by traditional project risk management.
Many of those practices are practices which we know are being applied pragmatically by seasoned project managers and organizations, based on their experience. Because we now understand how they participate to diminish project risk, these practices can be applied in a much more systematic and conscious way. In particular, those actions that aim at decreasing complexity and that aim at preventing major events of low probability are areas where considerable improvements can easily be brought in organizations.
Read our new fundamental White Paper “Fundamental Insights on Minimizing Complex Project Risk for a Single Project” [2012-25] and diminish risk in your Complex Projects.
