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What to Look at When Conducting a Schedule Statistical Analysis

We have observed that Schedule Statistical Analysis, when implemented, is often interpreted wrongly or does not bring the expected value. Beyond the obvious results (finish date) however, such an analysis can bring troves of useful information, through a deeper understanding of the project schedule’s drivers. In particular, Schedule Statistical Analysis can be used to identify improvements that can significantly enhance the robustness of a project schedule. In our new White Paper 2013-10 we explain what you should really look at when conducting a Schedule Statistical Analysis (SSA) – and how such an analysis should be conducted.

\"statistics\"Like any model of reality, SSA has a lot of limitations and its results should absolutely not be taken as granted. A lot of real-life effects are not modeled in the simulation.

We believe that the most important result is to understand how robust the critical path of the deterministic schedule really is. The White Paper gives key tips in how to improve the resilience of the project schedule based on the SSA result.

A very large proportion of our clients do not use Schedule Statistical Analysis (SSA) properly, and do not look at the right results. This tends to diminish the value of SSA in the eye of decision-makers.

This latest White Paper 2013-10 shows in detail what is the right approach for SSA and what are the types of results that can be – and cannot be – expected. As with any tool, SSA is a very powerful tool if its limitations are properly understood as well as what type of understanding it can really bring.

2 thoughts on “What to Look at When Conducting a Schedule Statistical Analysis”

  1. I have to disagree at least in part with your statement that “It is impractical to have meaningful statistics on the variability of thousands of activities; in addition people generally can respond to questions relative to aggregates, not detailed activities;”

    While your OBSERVATION is correct, I believe it to be one of the “root causes” for failure in so many projects. You CANNOT manage a project by focusing on the “big picture”. Projects “fail” because of lack of attention to the details. “For want of a nail….” (Franklin, B et al http://goo.gl/knpVa9 )

    Bottom line- IF we want to increase the “success rate” of projects, then your advice, while certainly a common practice, is a recipe for disaster and given the rather abysmal track record of projects, (Standish; Butts; Flyvbjerg; Merrow et al), we should not be advocating the ONLY the approach you have outlined. It is but one of MANY tools/techniques but in the end, it can and often does come down to one or two activities causing the project to “fail”.

    BR,
    Dr. PDG, Jakarta, Indonesia
    http://www.build-project-management-competency.com

  2. Hi Paul
    Thanks for your remarks.
    I do concur that being careful about the details is certainly important to delivering projects; however at the moment my experience is rather that people drown in trying to do too detailed analysis that is not meaningful, or even to maintain too detailed descriptions of the project in their Integrated Management Schedule. Because they lose track of the full picture and they drown in trying to update too complicated tools they don’t have time to observe and identify what in reality will derail your project.
    So – details yes, but not losing the full picture.
    The nail of B. Franklin maybe made a battle be lost but maybe it would have been needed to keep view on the big battle picture first.

    Jeremie

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